Overall wafer trading was weak, and the overall decline in solar cell prices continued [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

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SMM, June 27:

Electrode

Prices

The electrode market remained at a low level this week. Cost side, the price of raw material petroleum coke saw a significant increase this week, triggering a chain reaction in the market, with low-sulphur petroleum coke prices also rising. As a key raw material for electrode production, the rise in its price has strengthened the marginal cost support for electrodes, but the impact of this cost increase has not yet been directly reflected in electrode prices. Currently, ordinary power carbon electrode (diameter 960-1100mm) is quoted at 6,100-6,300 yuan/mt, and ordinary power carbon electrode (diameter 1272mm) is quoted at 6,800-7,000 yuan/mt. Ordinary power graphite electrode (diameter 960-1100mm) is quoted at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, and ordinary power graphite electrode (diameter 1272mm) is quoted at 10,900-11,100 yuan/mt.

Supply

The overall operating rate of the industry remains low, with high inventory levels among electrode enterprises, and the focus continues to be on destocking.

Demand

Downstream purchases are currently maintaining just-in-time needs, with insufficient order increments, sluggish trading atmosphere, and severe pressure on prices, only small-scale restocking based on immediate needs.

Silicon Metal

Prices

Yesterday, SMM East China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was priced at 8,100-8,300 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous day. News of production cuts by large plants yesterday stimulated an increase in futures market and spot quotations, with downstream players becoming more cautious, closely watching the subsequent production changes of the large plants.

Production:

In the latter part of the week, some capacity of large plants in Xinjiang began to cut production, while the operating rates of silicon enterprises in other regions remained largely unchanged. Next week, silicon metal production is expected to decrease MoM.

Inventory

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of June 26, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 542,000 mt, down 17,000 mt WoW. Among them, the social general warehouse inventory was 128,000 mt, down 3,000 mt WoW, and the social delivery warehouse inventory (including unregistered warrants and spot parts) was 414,000 mt, down 14,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.).

Wafer

Prices

Market N-type 18X wafer prices are 0.85-0.9 yuan/piece, and N-type 210RN wafer prices are 1.2-1.25 yuan/piece. This week, prices continued to fall, with multiple companies lowering wafer prices, and subsequent manufacturers following suit, with market sentiment remaining weak.

Production

Global wafer production in June is expected to be around 60 GW. Currently, it is common for wafer enterprises to incur cash cost losses, with top-tier enterprises barely maintaining their cash cost line, and there may be room for slight production cuts in the future.

Inventory

Market transactions were relatively weak this week. Some orders were signed earlier, leading to a slight inventory buildup of wafers.

Solar Cell

Prices

The price of high-efficiency PERC182 cells (23.2%+ efficiency) was 0.265-0.27 yuan/W. Domestic demand was minimal, while exports accounted for a high proportion. Some producers integrated production line resources and adjusted operations based on orders.

The mainstream quotation for Topcon183N cells (25%+ efficiency) was 0.23-0.24 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction price for Topcon210RN was 0.26 yuan/W, with a quotation range of 0.255-0.265 yuan/W. Topcon210N cells were priced around 0.25-0.255 yuan/W. The overall downtrend continued. By segment: the price of 183N cells previously plunged due to a sharp drop in orders but has now largely hit bottom, supported by wafer prices. The price of 210RN loosened under the impact of month-end destocking, while 210N faced pressure from supply-demand imbalance.

The price of HJT 30% silver-coated copper (25%+ efficiency) recently stabilized at 0.35-0.36 yuan/W. Price increases were driven by market demand fluctuations and cost control. HJT products saw limited direct sales, as integrated producers mainly relied on self-sufficiency.

Production

Global production scheduling in June was 57-58 GW, down 4-5% MoM. Cell supply tightened further due to weak demand, though the extent was less than expected. Some producers implemented additional production cuts for 183N cells mid-month, leading to an actual output reduction in June.

Inventory

The inventory buildup pace slowed last week for export-oriented producers. As month-end approached, stricter inventory management was adopted, and inventory levels were expected to pull back this week.

PV Film

Prices

PV-grade EVA

PV-grade EVA was priced at 9,500-9,750 yuan/mt. PV-grade POE transactions reached 11,300-14,000 yuan/mt.

PV Film

Current mainstream prices were: 420g transparent EVA film at 5.17-5.25 yuan/m², 420g white EVA film at 5.67-5.75 yuan/m², 380g EPE film at 5.28-5.32 yuan/m², and 380g POE film at 6.69-6.84 yuan/m².

Production

PV-grade EVA production scheduling fell 2.70% MoM in June, while PV film scheduling declined 3.1% MoM.

Inventory

Some film producers recently replenished stocks, while petrochemical plants were in a destocking phase. Some petrochemical plants are expected to switch to PV-grade production, gradually easing the supply-demand pattern for PV-grade EVA.